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The stock marketโs performed well recently. And looking ahead, most experts expect the good times to continue, given that economic growth is solid and artificial intelligence (AI) is enhancing productivity.
However, thereโs an issue on the horizon thatโs starting to concern me. Iโm worried that this could be the catalyst for a violent stock market crash in the not-too-distant future.
A new risk for investors
Itโs all to do with AI. And more specifically, AI-related job losses. In recent years, this technologyโs come a long way. And itโs now starting to replace human jobs.
For example, in January, global chemical powerhouse Dow Inc announced 4,701 layoffs, explicitly citing AI-driven automation in its operations. Meanwhile, Amazon announced 16,000 layoffs, partly due to AI efficiencies.
Could 2027 be the year when mass layoffs start? Potentially.
What happens then? Could we be potentially looking at a huge drop in consumer spending at some stage? That could be ugly. In the US (the worldโs largest economy), consumer spending drives roughly 70% of GDP.
Iโm concerned that uncertainty over job losses and consumer spending could result in downward pressure on stocks. If investors go into panic mode, we could see a violent move lower, given the big gains registered in recent years.
What Iโm doing now
Now, Iโm not saying that investors should go and sell all their stocks today. Because things may not play out this way (I could be totally wrong about AI job losses). But I think itโs worth giving some thought to overall asset allocation and portfolio diversification right now.
It could also be a good time to start building up a cash pile. Thatโs what Iโm doing personally. Given the run that markets have had, Iโm aiming to boost my cash pile to 20%+ of my overall investment portfolio. That way, Iโll have options if thereโs a stock market crash.
Rare buying opportunities
Itโs worth pointing out that a crash could present some amazing buying opportunities for long-term investors. For example, there may be a chance to buy shares in Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR.) at a much lower price.
This stock has had an incredible run over the last three years. As a result, it now trades at a very high valuation โ the forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratioโs near 40.
That valuationโs too high for me personally. But if the stock were to come down significantly in price, I could be interested in snapping it up for my portfolio.
Because I see a lot of growth potential given the companyโs exposure to defence and nuclear energy. These markets look set for strong growth in the years ahead given the complex geopolitical backdrop.
Of course, a large chunk of Rolls-Royceโs business is the manufacturing and servicing of engines for the civil aerospace market. If we were to see a major drop in consumer spending, this side of the business could be impacted negatively.
Overall though, I think the company has a lot going for it. So itโs on my โstock market crash watchlistโ.
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