U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling will likely allow India to keep buying Russian oil

India will likely continue buying Russian oil as the U.S. Supreme Court’s verdict outlawing President Donald Trump’s import tariffs has constrained his trade policy options, analysts said.

“I do expect that India will maintain a healthy relationship with Russia, including on energy,” Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told CNBC’s Inside India. He added that India could reduce its Russian oil purchases but is unlikely to stop completely.

According to energy data provider Kpler, India has imported 1.16 million barrel per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February, lower than an average intake of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025.

While it is too early to draw data on March and April arrivals, Muyu Xu, senior research analyst for crude at Kpler, said that “market chatter indicates” Indian refiners have refrained from booking April delivery of Russian oil this month following an interim US-India trade deal reached earlier this month.

But following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that Trump did not have the legal authority to implement sweeping import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Xu said India now has the room to maintain Russian oil imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day.

According to Shidore, Trump’s ability to amend tariffs for reasons such as the purchase of Russian oil or factors unrelated to trade or economics will be constrained due to the court ruling.

India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

India’s purchases of Russian oil have been a thorny issue and led to the deterioration of ties between the U.S. and India last year.

In August, Trump imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods to punish New Delhi for buying Russian crude, claiming that India was “fueling [Russia’s] war machine” against Ukraine. This, in addition to the 25% reciprocal tariffs the U.S. already had in place on Indian goods, meant that Indian exports to the U.S. faced total tariffs of 50%, the highest amongst all of the U.S.’ trading partners.

Following the interim trade deal, the U.S. slashed its tariff on Indian goods to 18% from 50%.

In an executive order on Feb 6, U.S. president Donald Trump removed its punitive 25% tariff on India, stating that New Delhi has “committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil” and will purchase “energy products from the United States”.

But the joint statement issued by India and the U.S., announcing the interim trade deal omitted any mention of India committing to curb purchases of Russian oil. However, the statement did feature New Delhi’s intentions to buy half a trillion dollars worth of U.S. goods including energy over the next five years as part of the deal.

India’s commitments to reduce its purchases of Russian oil “were never formally codified and always appeared difficult to implement in practice,” said Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Hermann added that India’s energy strategy is fundamentally driven by price considerations and a motivation to not being tied to any one supplier. “US crude is unlikely to displace Russian barrels in any meaningful way,” Hermann said.

Hours after the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against the IEEPA tariffs last Friday, Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to first impose a 10% global import tariff. He subsequently increased the rate to 15%. But a U.S. Customs and Border Protection memo published Monday evening when the levy came into effect said the rate was 10%.

India’s trade negotiators have rescheduled their visit to Washington to firm up the interim trade deal. The visit will “be scheduled after each side has had the time to evaluate the latest developments and their implications,” a source told CNBC’s Amitoj Singh.

“India has continued to import Russian oil despite several tariff tactics,” said Pankaj Srivastava, senior vice president of commodity markets at Rystad Energy.

The U.S. court ruling against Trump’s tariffs followed by the implementation of a blanket global tariff rate of 10% dilutes any advantage that Indian exporters to the U.S. would have had from the trade deal, analysts said.

In light of the recent developments, Srivastava said that the U.S. would not push India hard on the issue of reducing its Russian oil purchases and risk the “significant” U.S. energy exports to India.

India regularly buys U.S. crude of 200,000-300,000 barrel per day, according to Kpler. As of end-January, Russia was India’s largest supplier of crude oil, while the U.S. ranked sixth, data from Kpler and Rystad Energy show.