Hollywood has a box office problem: The old movie sequel trick is falling flat

Moviegoers will discover a wealth of acquainted franchises on the massive display screen this yr. It might not be sufficient to avoid wasting the field workplace.

New entrants from in style movie collection dominate the film slate within the subsequent 12 months. The 2026 schedule options releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Tremendous Mario Bros., Starvation Video games, Scream, Scary Film, Minions, Dune and Jumanji.

Mental property like these established franchises has lengthy been an essential a part of Hollywood, however they’re more and more important in 2026 because the theatrical trade seeks to interrupt the $10 billion mark on the home field workplace for the primary time for the reason that pandemic.

However some big-name installments aren’t drawing the crowds they used to, and trade insiders fear the $10 billion benchmark could also be past attain this yr for a post-pandemic trade that has been rocked by manufacturing shutdowns, the consolidation of main studios and a shift in client viewing towards streaming.

“The reliance on franchises has been a little bit trickier the previous couple of years,” stated Alicia Reese, senior vice chairman of fairness analysis for Wedbush. “Sure, there is a stage of certainty … however it’s not a house run. It is by no means going to be a house run from right here on out, as a result of persons are pickier than they was. They know what’s coming. Phrase of mouth means greater than ever.”

Since 2010, the highest 10 highest-grossing movies domestically have predominantly been franchise movies, based on knowledge from Comscore. Throughout that point, between eight and 10 of the movies launched annually had been a sequel, prequel or remake. The one outlier was 2020, when seven of the highest 10 movies had been franchise based mostly, as a result of variety of movies that had been delayed throughout Covid shutdowns.

And, in fact, a variety of the unique titles that broke into the highest 10 have develop into franchises themselves within the final twenty years. Take a look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “Secret Lifetime of Pets” and “Ted.”

“Studios clearly really feel that viewers comfortability — with going to see a film the place they already, in some sense, know what they’re getting earlier than they stroll into the auditorium — is a wager value making,” stated Paul Dergarabedian, head of market traits at Comscore.

As studios lean into the security of a built-in viewers, box-office gross sales develop into extra reliant on the success of those franchise movies.

Earlier than the pandemic, throughout the span of 2010 to 2019, prime 10 movies represented a mean of 30% of the whole home field workplace yearly. Outpacing the group was the 2019 calendar the place these movies accounted for almost 40% of the annual haul. All 10 movies that yr had been IP-driven, and 9 of them generated greater than $1 billion globally.

Put up-pandemic, the typical proportion that the highest 10 movies characterize of the whole annual home field workplace is 44%.

“I keep in mind having this dialog the late ’90s,” stated Eric Handler, managing director and senior analysis analyst at Roth Capital Companions. “The field workplace has for the final a number of a long time been franchise-driven. That is simply the way in which it’s. Why? It is as a result of when there’s familiarity with content material, there is a higher probability that individuals will present up as a result of there’s an affinity in the direction of a selected franchise and it is already identified.”

Now, Hollywood is going through the cruel actuality of what occurs when franchises fall flat.

Two of probably the most anticipated movies to hit theaters final yr — Common’s “Depraved: For Good” and Disney’s “Avatar: Hearth and Ash” — underperformed expectations.

The primary “Depraved” film, launched in 2024, tallied $475 million on the domestical field workplace and a little bit greater than $750 million globally throughout its run in theaters. A yr later, the second a part of the duology collected just below $350 million from the U.S. and Canada and about $525 million globally.

Field-office analysts attributed the smaller ticket gross sales to a drop in high quality between the primary and second installments. “Depraved” generated an 88% “Recent” ranking on assessment aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, whereas “Depraved: For Good” scored a 66% ranking.

“Avatar: Hearth and Ash” had even larger footwear to fill. James Cameron’s breakout hit “Avatar,” launched in 2009, snared $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion internationally. It stays the highest-grossing movie of all time on the field workplace with $2.9 billion in ticket gross sales.

Greater than a decade later, “Avatar: The Approach of Water” hit theaters, producing $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its whole haul to $2.3 billion.

However when “Hearth and Ash” hit theaters in December, client demand wasn’t almost as excessive and the attract of Cameron’s groundbreaking filming methods had worn off. “Hearth and Ash,” which continues to be taking part in in theaters, has tallied simply $378.5 million domestically and handed $1 billion internationally as of Sunday.

Wedbush’s Reese stated a part of the issue could be attempting to mine an excessive amount of from anyone franchise.

Take, for instance, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. The movie franchise has been a box-office darling for almost twenty years, however struggled within the wake of the climactic “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019 to supply constant high quality sequels. On the identical time, it flooded the streaming market with a dozen new tv collection.

“Should you attempt to stretch it too skinny and you do not put the identical stage of consideration to particulars then it isn’t going to work,” Reese stated.

There’s additionally danger in attempting to broaden a distinct segment curiosity into a world success, she stated. Do filmmakers keep near the unique IP and play to its base, or do they shoot for a wider viewers and an even bigger splash?

Reese famous Warner Bros.’ new Dune franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is an effective instance of a collection that is threaded the needle, touchdown with followers who already cherished the books on the identical time that it drew in new crowds.

“If it is a good movie, it’s going to service that core viewers and it’d usher in some newbies and have that broader enchantment,” Reese stated. “However, should you attempt to get that broad enchantment and you are not servicing your core followers, they may flip in opposition to you. That can spell large issues, as a result of if they do not just like the movie, everybody else goes to search out out about it, they usually will not go both, proper?”

Since Covid shutdowns all however decimated the film trade in early 2020, the variety of movies being produced for theatrical launch has declined.

As studios produce fewer movies, they’re counting much more on what they understand because the secure bets of tried and true IP.

In 2024, 94 films had been launched in additional than 2,000 areas, a 20% decline from the 120 vast releases in 2019. That drop was mirrored within the box-office outcomes, which had been down about 23% from the $11.4 billion tallied in 2019.

In 2025, there have been 112 vast launched movies, about 6.6% down from 2019 ranges, however the field workplace nonetheless lagged greater than 20%.

Hollywood analysts level to a number of components to clarify why the home field workplace continues to tug.

There’s a lack of theatrical content material, notably movies which can be within the mid-budget vary — $15 million to $90 million. Most of those movies, which are usually dramas, comedies, romantic comedies and thrillers, have transitioned to streaming, as they’re cheaper to make and assist pad digital libraries with new content material.

On the identical time, shoppers have develop into pickier about what they watch and the house leisure area has superior in a method that in-home know-how makes staying on the sofa simpler.

Due to this, studios and theater house owners have began “eventizing” movie releases — selling the movies as must-see in premium giant format theaters like IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Display X or 4DX; promoting specialty merchandise like popcorn buckets and drink sippers in addition to limited-time meals choices; and internet hosting occasions related to a movie launch like friendship bracelet making for the Taylor Swift live performance movie launch.

Typically, the movies which can be best to advertise on this method are these which can be based mostly on identified franchises.

Final yr, when “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” hit theaters, Alamo Drafthouse hosted fancy costume screenings, encouraging moviegoers to reach in period-appropriate apparel. The occasion included a fancy dress contest and themed drinks and meals. The theater chain has hosted comparable occasions for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars movies and can host one for the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” adaptation.

And these franchises aren’t simply exhibiting up in film theaters. Many main movie studios even have their very own client product and expertise divisions, which depend on theatrical content material to not solely promote merchandise however gas theme park designs, dwell occasions and even cruise ships.

Followers of franchises are hungry for merchandise that commemorate and exhibit their favourite characters or film moments. This may manifest within the type of attire, bedding, kitchen utensils and bumper stickers all the way in which to collectibles, luxurious watches, electronics and seasonal merchandise like ornaments.

Disney has constructed theme park lands, rides and cruise ship components based mostly on Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Pixar movies like Vehicles, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc., in addition to Disney Animation properties like Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King and the Little Mermaid.

Comcast’s Common, too, has decked out its theme parks with its personal properties — Jurassic Park, Minions, Secret Lifetime of Pets, Darkish Universe and Find out how to Prepare Your Dragon — alongside licensed franchises just like the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and Nintendo.

And beloved and well-tended-to franchises have endurance: The Star Wars franchise hasn’t notched a brand new theatrical launch since 2019, but it is remained one of many prime movie franchises within the cultural zeitgeist, based on Fandom, the world’s largest platform for leisure followers.

Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.