December CRE deal quantity sinks additional, however workplace is a shocking shiny spot – Company Technique & Outlook

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Business actual property deal quantity fell in December for the second straight month, however the full-year numbers reveal some progress, doubtlessly establishing much-needed momentum for this yr.

Complete deal greenback quantity dropped 20% in December yr over yr, in keeping with month-to-month information offered by Moody’s as a media unique to CNBC’s Property Play. It tracks the highest 50 business actual property property gross sales throughout the U.S., within the core segments of multifamily, workplace, industrial, retail and lodge.

For all of 2025, deal quantity was 17% larger in contrast with 2024, a wholesome enlargement however decrease than the 24% annual development seen the yr earlier than and nonetheless 30% beneath the 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark.

“The US business actual property (CRE) market in 2025 was outlined by a gradual, albeit decelerating, climb towards stabilization,” mentioned Kevin Fagan, head of CRE capital market analysis at Moody’s. “The restoration proved resilient within the face of great financial slowing, coverage uncertainty, a large mortgage maturity wall, and persistently excessive rates of interest in comparison with three years in the past.”

Main the panorama had been the multifamily and workplace sectors. The restoration in workplace has been swelling, as return-to-office orders and a increase in AI employment counter the pandemic-driven narrative that workplace is over.

Complete workplace deal quantity was up 21% in 2025 in contrast with the yr earlier than. Traders, nonetheless, proceed to favor Class A or trophy belongings, as the remainder of the market struggles.

Multifamily, which has been seeing declining fundamentals, resembling occupancy and lease, nonetheless led 2025 dealmaking, up 24% in deal quantity from 2024. It benefited from larger mortgage charges within the single-family for-sale market, which saved extra renters from turning into patrons.

Retail additionally noticed a wholesome achieve of 19%. Fundamentals within the sector, particularly grocery-anchored and necessity-based facilities, had been robust, keeping off continued stress from e-commerce.

“Retail has formally re-entered the dialog as a sturdy, investment-grade asset class, with buyers extra centered on the standard underwriting nuances than potential practical obsolescence and a ‘retail apocalypse,'” Fagan mentioned.

Final yr additionally noticed one thing of a comeback for a lot beleaguered greater greenback CRE offers. The amount of gross sales over $100 million was 23% larger than in 2024, Moody’s discovered. These offers are reflective of institutional gamers, company owner-occupiers and a few REITs. That section remains to be, nonetheless, the furthest from restoration, at simply half of 2019 ranges. 

The smallest-scale offers, these beneath $5 million, at the moment are truly transferring forward of their 2019 tempo by 4%. They are usually favored by personal capital and particular person buyers who’ve been extra lively and liquid by this price cycle. Offers priced between $5 million and $15 million are simply 12% beneath 2019 quantity. 

The center-sized offers, these between $15 million and $100 million are nonetheless struggling, as they’re most susceptible to difficulties in financing. 

One other main development in 2025 was the choice play — sectors exterior of the core 5, like health-care-related properties, information facilities and pupil housing. The most important sale of 2025 was a 296-property medical workplace portfolio, purchased by Treatment Medical Properties from Welltower. It was additionally the largest-ever sale within the sector.

The seemingly determined want for information was additionally standout in 2025’s high 50 offers. Amazon and Google, particularly, had been lively. The ninth-largest sale of the yr was a $615 million land deal in northern Virginia. SDC Capital Companions bought 97 acres of entitled information middle land in Leesburg from Chuck Kuhn’s JK Land Holdings, a record-setting deal exceeding $6.3 million per acre. 

Knowledge additionally drove a surge in company owner-occupiers, notably tech giants like Apple and Amazon. In actual fact, Apple went on one thing of a procuring spree, in keeping with Fagan, deploying over $1.1 billion in California’s Santa Clara County alone, together with a number of workplace buildings and an workplace and R&D campus. 

“By buying these belongings, Apple is securing its long-term operational footprint whereas capitalizing on a 20-30% pricing reset within the Silicon Valley workplace market in comparison with 2022 peaks,” mentioned Fagan, including that Microsoft made related strikes final yr.

The features of 2025 bode cautiously nicely for business actual property, which is seeing one thing of a portfolio rebalancing. Whereas institutional buyers undoubtedly got here again to the sector, some main public REITs offered massive, multi-tenant portfolios to non-public fairness companies. The latter at the moment are proving to be large gamers, trying to deploy important capital that was sitting on the sidelines within the current higher-rate setting. 

“Market contributors are largely optimistic, anticipating tail winds from a extra dovish Federal Reserve underneath an incoming chair and financial lifts from potential tax cuts,” Fagan mentioned. “Nevertheless, with rates of interest unlikely to drop precipitously, 2026 is anticipated to see a average acceleration of present momentum slightly than a return to the period of ultracheap capital.”