After paying their respects to Mahatma Gandhi at his memorial in New Delhi, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in 2023, Sheikh Hasina, then prime minister of Bangladesh, and her United Kingdom counterpart on the time, Rishi Sunak, had been talking in a room. To some, this picture — of a seated Hasina with Sunak leaning to pay attention whereas kneeling on the ground — confirmed a reassured political matriarch.
Hasina, elected prime minister 5 instances, was ousted in a student-led motion in 2024 and fled to India. Earlier than that, an estimated 1,400 folks had been killed in her protest crackdown.
Over the previous 18 months, India has not actively engaged with Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and chief adviser to the interim authorities in Bangladesh, largely as a result of India views the association as non permanent. However with the overall election in February, India is attempting to resume its relations with Bangladesh, spurred by strategic issues reminiscent of Pakistan’s (and Chinese language) affect.
Hasina’s get together, the Awami League, has been banned from taking part within the election, and a Dhaka tribunal has sentenced her to loss of life for the 2024 crackdown. There aren’t any indicators that India will extradite Hasina, given India’s historical past with Bangladesh’s creation (1971) and the position her household performed within the nation’s battle for freedom from Pakistan.
In response to some analysts, India might need a greater likelihood of resetting ties if the Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion (BNP) involves energy or has the higher hand in any alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, a hardline get together that has at all times advocated for Bangladesh’s stronger ties with Pakistan. Though opinion polls recommend that the BNP is forward within the February election, the Jamaat, which is contesting extensively, swept college polls in September 2025. In 2024, the interim authorities lifted a ban on the Jamaat that Hasina had imposed, accusing the nation’s largest Islamist get together of frightening unrest.
Riva Ganguly Das, India’s former ambassador to Bangladesh, described the current state of affairs in Bangladesh as “very complicated” and stated India ought to wait and watch.
Each the BNP and the Jamaat wish to win, Ganguly Das stated. “However with the Awami stored out, you possibly can’t say there’s a level-playing discipline within the polls.”
The election will primarily turn into a contest between the BNP and the Jamaat that has been influential behind the scenes, particularly since Hasina’s ouster.
If that is seen as an inflection level in Bangladeshi politics, the folks on the whole and the Jamaat particularly must determine how essential the Bengali identification is to them, Ganguly Das stated.
An outdated debate in Bangladesh society centres on nationwide identification: cultural versus non secular.
There have been allegations of the Awami League rigging elections up to now, however as a result of Bangladesh had two essential events for many years, a brand new state of affairs will probably be a significant shift. Hasina’s get together has been weakened — lots of its native leaders have fled and others have been detained.
Yunus has introduced that alongside the overall election, a referendum to a brand new reform constitution will probably be held, which amongst different issues (for one, constitutionally recognising the 2024 motion) seeks to strengthen presidential powers and place prime ministerial time period limits (no formal restrict exists). Whereas it’s unclear if he needs to turn into president, as some have recommended, he’s in favour of passing it. For now, the prime minister’s workplace holds most energy.
India-Bangladesh relations are strained, from visas to cricket.
“Yunus has made India the bogeyman. Such rhetoric just isn’t useful,” Ganguly Das stated, including that the political strategy must change for any significant relationship with India.
After Bangladesh’s former prime minister and BNP chief Khaleda Zia died on December 30, Exterior Affairs Minister S Jaishankar visited Dhaka to attend her funeral and met her son Tarique Rahman, who was beforehand overseas in exile for 17 years. Since Zia and Hasina had been arch-rivals, Rahman is seen because the inheritor to his mom’s political legacy. The BNP final held energy nationally in 2006.
Jaishankar’s assembly with Rahman and his group introduced the potential of a brand new section within the bilateral relationship, Humayun Kabir, Rahman’s international affairs adviser, informed Al Jazeera.
The Indian authorities has stated it expects the post-election Bangladeshi authorities to be inclusive.
Rahman has positioned himself as a centrist. However even when the Jamaat, which has a conservative ideology, wins, India has little choice than to do enterprise with Bangladesh.
“Hasina was in a position to hold Pakistani exercise below management, however she additionally performed the ‘China card’” to stability India and China, Ganguly Das stated.
India and Bangladesh resolved the border dispute throughout Hasina’s time however points reminiscent of unlawful migration and water-sharing stay. India has tightened safety on the Bangladesh border, as soon as thought-about “porous”, since Hasina’s exit.
The previous diplomat stated financial exchanges and connectivity ought to develop. “India ought to make investments extra in Bangladesh.”
Bilateral commerce touched $13 billion in 2025. India’s Exim Financial institution has supplied $8 billion value of strains of credit score to Bangladesh up to now. Extra not too long ago, India withdrew transhipment services for Bangladeshi items and Bangladesh restricted the import of Indian yarn and paper.
The Bangladeshi media have revealed commentary that blames India for turning a blind eye to what they name Hasina’s misrule. Even so, the deep cultural and financial hyperlinks between the 2 nations make a turnaround in ties appear attainable.
Whichever get together or coalition involves energy, it should announce a daring initiative and push the reset button with India, the Bangladeshi economist Abdullah Shibli wrote in The Every day Star, a Dhaka-based newspaper, in October, figuring out areas of collaboration.
First Revealed: Feb 10 2026 | 3:30 AM IST
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