Wanting forward, the sentiment has turned extra constructive, encouraging a risk-on temper, which might lend additional assist to the rupee
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Rupee appreciated about 1.4 per cent towards the greenback on Tuesday, closing at 90.27. The native forex touched a three-week excessive of 90.05 throughout the session, lifted by a optimistic shift in sentiment following India’s commerce cope with the US.
The settlement, which considerably lowers the US tariffs on Indian items, has helped take away a key overhang that had been weighing on Indian monetary markets in latest months. Indian equities and the rupee had come underneath sustained stress because the tariffs have been imposed, triggering heavy international investor outflows and putting home property among the many weaker performers in rising markets this yr.
Wanting forward, the sentiment has turned extra constructive, encouraging a risk-on temper, which might lend additional assist to the rupee. That mentioned, capital outflows stay the largest issue that has impacted the Indian forex in latest weeks. In line with NSDL knowledge, internet international portfolio investor outflows to this point this yr have been $2.7 billion, underscoring the drag from persistent promoting stress.
Nevertheless, the commerce deal breakthrough with the US, coming shut on the heels of a long-awaited commerce cope with the European Union, has improved the outlook for international investor sentiment. If this interprets right into a revival of portfolio flows into Indian equities and bonds, it can present a significant tailwind for the rupee within the close to time period.
On the charts
The rupee rose above a resistance at 91 and is at the moment hovering round 90.20, one other vital degree from technical perspective. So, we’d see a minor dip, presumably to 90.60 from the present degree of 90.27.
However then, the native forex can resume the uptrend, probably taking it to 89.50. Whereas the chart hints this, one must also think about elements like how comfy the RBI can be if the rupee rises rapidly and the finer particulars within the commerce deal. In case one thing has a unfavorable influence, the home forex would possibly slip again to 91.
One other key issue is the greenback, which has been on a restoration since final week. At present buying and selling at 97.60, the greenback index rebounded from 95.50. Because it stands, it’s prone to rise additional, most likely to 98. Such an uptick can weigh on the rupee.
Outlook
Total, the aid rally might face a short lived pause across the 90.20 degree, with the rupee prone to witness a light pullback within the coming periods, presumably in direction of 90.60.
Revealed on February 3, 2026
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