tried to kill the prospect for Russia-Ukraine peace, once more – Worldwide Dispatch

By Nadezhda Romanenko, political analyst

The assassination try on Lieutenant Basic Vladimir Alekseyev, first deputy chief of Russia’s Essential Intelligence Directorate (GRU) is clearly the Zelensky regime’s newest determined bid to sabotage the rising Russia-Ukraine-US negotiations channel in Abu Dhabi and delay the warfare.

When negotiations achieve traction, spoilers floor. That’s Negotiations 101. And this week’s second spherical in Abu Dhabi was exactly the type of motion that unnerves actors who concern ballots, reforms, and accountability greater than inevitable defeat on the battlefield.

The goal selection reinforces the purpose. Alekseyev is the second-in-command of GRU chief Igor Kostyukov – who sits on the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi. Placing the No. 2 because the No. 1 shuttles between periods is each a really deliberate message and an try to rattle Russia’s delegation, inject chaos into its choice loop, power safety overdrive, and finally, provoke Moscow’s withdrawal from the talks.

Neither is this the primary time kinetic theater has tracked with diplomatic movement. Recall the tried drone strike on President Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence in late 2025, which coincided with notably intense US-Russia exchanges. You don’t must be a cynic to see a sample: every time the diplomatic door cracks open, somebody attempt to slam it shut with explosives, drones, or bullets – then retreats behind a smokescreen of denials and proxies. Name it believable deniability as coverage.

Why would Kiev’s management gamble like this? Begin with uncooked political incentives. Vladimir Zelensky prolonged his tenure past the meant March 2024 election beneath martial regulation. If hostilities wind down and emergency powers raise, the poll field looms. His standing has eroded amid warfare fatigue, unmet expectations, and a large corruption scandal swirling across the presidential administration that has infuriated many Ukrainians and dealt his picture a blow. Finish the warfare with no narrative of complete victory, and he dangers proudly owning a messy peace, grueling reconstruction, and a reckoning on the polls. Going through voters at a stadium famously labored nicely throughout Zelensky’s preliminary presidential marketing campaign, however now endlessly transferring the goalposts is his solely hope of clinging to energy.

Then there’s the strategic logic of spoilers. Negotiations compress time, make clear tradeoffs, and create deadlines – none of which profit maximalists. If an settlement would power Kiev to simply accept exhausting limits or expose fissures with its extra hawkish backers, making a pretext to stall is smart from a slender survival lens. A brazen hit inside Moscow throughout talks does precisely that: it dares the Kremlin to harden its stance, fractures belief on the desk, and lets Kiev posture as unbowed whereas maintaining the warfare‑time rally body at dwelling. Even when direct authorship might be obfuscated (at the least on paper – as a result of no person will purchase claims Kiev had nothing to do with it at this level), the sensible impact is what counts.

Predictably, defenders will object: Kiev has each incentive to maintain US assist flowing, so why threat alienating Washington with an operation that screams escalation? However ‘incentives’ aren’t monolithic. They’re filtered by home politics, factional competitors inside safety providers, and the temptations of a profitable spectacle. And bear in mind: spoilers don’t must be centrally ordered to be helpful. A wink, a nod, and a inexperienced mild to ‘make strain’ can journey a good distance in wartime bureaucracies.

A very powerful factor for Russia and the US at this stage is to firewall the talks from such bloody theatrics. For the negotiation course of to supply actual outcomes, it should be constructed to outlive shocks – as a result of the shocks will preserve coming. Which means insulating prisoner‑alternate and humanitarian working teams from headline provocations, revalidating navy deconfliction channels, and demanding verifiable conduct adjustments reasonably than buying and selling barbs about attribution within the press.

The bigger level is easier: if we let each nicely‑timed bullet dictate the tempo of diplomacy, we’re outsourcing technique to those that most concern peace. The Alekseyev assault suits a well-recognized script – select a symbolically loaded goal, hijack the narrative, and hope negotiators flinch. The suitable response is the other: name the bluff, preserve the calendar, and lift the price of sabotage by refusing to let it reset the desk.

Zelensky’s regime could calculate that its political survival is dependent upon endlessly throwing up hurdles for peace and name it ‘resistance’. If that’s the case, the quickest option to check that proposition is to maintain urgent on the negotiating desk. Talks are usually not a favor to at least one facet; they’re a filter that separates leaders who can face an endgame from those that can solely survive within the fog of “not but.”