The joint assertion issued by Washington and New Delhi on February 7 clarified that “India intends to buy $500 billion of US power merchandise, plane and plane elements, valuable metals, know-how merchandise, and coking coal over the subsequent 5 years.”
That too is a tall order, particularly when the assertion mentions power merchandise first. Vitality merchandise are primarily fuels similar to crude oil, liquified petroleum fuel and liquified pure fuel – the gases used to fireplace automobiles, industries and kitchens.
India imports 90 per cent of its crude oil, 60 per cent of LPG and over half of LNG. However all three power merchandise, which collectively accounted for 22 per cent of India’s whole imports by worth in FY2025, or a mixed $175 billion, are sourced from a number of suppliers — primarily from West Asia and Russia.
The US shipped simply over $12 billion of power merchandise in FY25, together with coking and steam coal. Additionally included on this had been petroleum fuels price round $9 billion, which made up simply 5 per cent of India’s whole petroleum import basket by worth, commerce ministry knowledge confirmed — illustrating the lengthy street forward.
Whereas the joint assertion didn’t give a breakup of the $500 billion purpose, even a 20 per cent contribution from power merchandise would imply India having to spice up US purchases eight-fold from present ranges in 5 years– whilst oil and fuel costs pattern decrease on the again of copious provides — in accordance with senior officers from the general public sector corporations Gail Ltd and Petronet LNG Ltd.
“Analysts could be sensible to disregard among the numbers within the deal, or a minimum of deal with them as aspirational,” stated Evan
Feigenbaum, a scholar at Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, a US suppose tank. “However US-India commerce has undershot its potential endlessly, so ambition is nice.” Total, India might want to enhance imports of services and products from the US by over 5 fold in 5 years to satisfy the goal, in accordance with Feigenbaum. US items exports to India in 2024 had been round $41.5 billion and providers exports had been $41.8 billion.
As for power, the US share in India’s commerce basket is low in each quantity and worth. The US contributed 5 per cent to India’s crude oil imports in quantity phrases in 2025, hardly 8 per cent to LNG imports and seven per cent to LPG provides, Kpler knowledge confirmed.
In worth phrases, purchases of US coking coal, utilized in metal vegetation, and steam coal, used as gasoline, declined by 22 per cent in FY25 to $3.2 billion in contrast with FY24, commerce ministry knowledge confirmed. Crude purchases from the US rose by 30 per cent to $6.5 billion throughout the identical interval, whereas LNG imports elevated by 74 per cent to $2.46 billion.
Whereas it’s true that India accelerated Russian crude oil imports 25-fold to over $50 billion in FY25 from simply over $2 billion in FY22, previous to the Ukraine invasion, this surge relied on oil discounted by over $10 per barrel, which US suppliers can not match, senior refining officers instructed Enterprise Customary.
Not like shopping for plane, a market managed by US’ Boeing and Europe’s Airbus, petroleum is a aggressive enterprise. Indian refiners supply crude oil at aggressive charges from over 40 nations, stated oil minister Hardeep Puri at India Vitality Week (IEW) in Goa final month. LNG comes from over 10 nations, authorities knowledge confirmed.
“As a result of our imposed dependency is so excessive, to nullify the affect we continuously preserve exploring totally different geographies,” Bharat Petroleum’s refining director Sanjay Khanna, who has extra cost of chairman and managing director, instructed Enterprise Customary in an interview. “And it’s a part of the marketing strategy itself that every refinery will probably be going for 5 extra (kinds of) crudes this 12 months.”
Newer suppliers for oil are rising, similar to Brazil and Colombia from Latin America—Brazilian provides have jumped threefold this 12 months from a 12 months earlier, knowledge from Vortexa confirmed. Equally, the UAE has emerged as an enormous sourcing base for LNG, supplying as a lot as a fifth of its LNG output to India, stated Adnoc Fuel CEO Fatema al-Nuaimi. Puri added that India will import greater than 4.2 million tonnes of LNG from the UAE yearly beneath time period contracts — half as a lot because it imports from Qatar now.
French main Whole has resumed work at Mozambique LNG, the place Indian state oil corporations maintain a 30 per cent stake and which is a a lot shorter journey than the US. Oil India CEO Ranjit Rath stated the corporate is collaborating within the buildout of the $20 billion Mozambique LNG venture to offer Indian shoppers a less expensive, dependable supply of LNG.
Canadian power minister Tim Hodgson, a key visitor at IEW, expressed robust curiosity in deepening cooperation with India, significantly within the areas of LNG, oil provides and long-term power commerce.
The provision of other sources of each oil and LNG has tempered the passion for US fuels, a senior oil dealer stated. The dealer additionally stated that state-run oil corporations, the most important importers of power, are sure by strict oversight and sourcing guidelines that bar preferential remedy for any importing nation, except there may be an explicitly declared formal mandate.
The US shipped 319,000 bpd of crude oil in calendar 2025 to take a 6.5 per cent share of India’s crude import market. Whereas that measured a considerable 60 per cent soar over 2024, it was nonetheless 23 per cent beneath the 2021 document 415,000 bpd for a ten p.c share, Kpler knowledge confirmed.
Within the first 40 days of this 12 months, Indian imports of US oil slipped 18 per cent beneath 2025 ranges at 262,000 bpd. In the meantime, US oil shipments to India averaged 180,000 bpd in December 2025 and January 2026 in contrast with 520,000 bpd in September 2025.
US LNG, which is Trump’s largest pitch to international nations, represented simply 12 per cent, or 2.9 million tonnes, of India’s whole imports in 2025, down from a 19 per cent share in 2024 regardless of Gail India boosting its fleet capability, in accordance with Kpler.
A soar within the worth of US benchmark pure fuel index Henry Hub (HH) this winter to over $50 per million British thermal models (MMbtu) from $4 million Btu earlier has precipitated concern amongst India’s LNG importers, particularly Gail, which has long-term contracts for five.8 million tonnes of US LNG, senior firm officers stated.
A high Gail official stated that whereas spikes are regular in winter, these charges are unacceptable to Indian shoppers.
Till final 12 months, there was a rush for HH-linked contracts, stated a senior LNG dealer at a state oil firm. The scenario has reversed after HH gained energy in the previous couple of months, the dealer stated. Indian state-run oil corporations had signed up for round 10 million tons per 12 months of LNG within the December 2024-April 2025 interval in HH-linked offers.
The spike in HH charges —which the US Vitality Info Administration expects to harden this 12 months and the subsequent—has led Indian LNG importers to evaluate US proposals for LNG provides, business officers stated and knowledge confirmed.
Since late 2025, personal sector gamers like Torrent Energy and Indian state entities have switched to oil-linked pricing, firm knowledge confirmed.
Petronet LNG managing director Akshay Kumar Singh and Sandeep Kumar Gupta, chairman, Gail, emphasised at IEW that LNG costs should be inexpensive – beneath $9 per million Btu – for Indian purchases to surge. At $60 per barrel oil ranges, India can herald LNG at round $8 per million Btu however delivering LNG from the US at even $4 per million Btu HH prices over $10 per million Btu, business officers stated.
LPG provides to India are primarily pushed by imports from West Asia, T V Pandiyan, Enterprise Head (LPG), Bharat Petroleum stated. The primary term-contract for US LPG, anticipated to account for 10 per cent of India’s LPG imports, will begin quickly, he stated.
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