Trump says India will cease shopping for Russian oil. Shadow fleet vessels are nonetheless unloading sanctioned crude at its ports – Worldwide Dispatch

President Donald Trump introduced a U.S. commerce take care of India on Monday which he mentioned features a promise from India to cease shopping for Russian oil and probably purchase from the U.S. and Venezuela, however knowledge exhibits the shadow fleet of tankers transferring sanctioned crude continues to unload at Indian ports.

World knowledge and analytics agency Kpler’s vessel monitoring shared with CNBC exhibits 4 tankers related to Russia’s shadow fleet unloading or within the means of unloading sanctioned oil at Indian ports: the Giannis, unloading Urals at Chennai Refinery; the Nyxora, unloading Urals at Paradip Refinery; the Tiburon, unloading Urals at Vadinar Refinery; and the Seasons I, which is being tracked outdoors Vadinar on Tuesday morning however was but to unload, in keeping with Kpler.

In current months, the worldwide shadow fleet transferring sanctioned oil, estimated to be as massive as 1,400 vessels, has navigated across the tightening U.S. enforcement marketing campaign on Venezuela and Iranian oil, and Europe’s interventions towards the rising movement of stateless tankers loading Russian crude.

A current Lloyd’s Listing evaluation on the worldwide shadow fleet after the U.S. army actions in Venezuela discovered that out of the roughly 50 tankers that have been stuffed with Venezuelan oil, no less than 5 tankers accomplished deliveries to China with the vessel’s Computerized Identification System (AIS) working usually, and suggesting “the enforcement stress has but to chew.”

The U.S. not too long ago accomplished its first gross sales of Venezuelan oil within the authorized crude market.

Sanctioned Russian crude has additionally confronted rising enforcement measures. Lately, the French seized the tanker Grinch, which departed Murmansk earlier this month with a cargo of Russian oil. The French, with British help in monitoring and monitoring, boarded the vessel to conduct a flag verification. The flag of the Comoros Islands has been deemed false. This seizure was the primary occasion of the EU-UK plan to interdict Russia’s shadow fleet. The sanctioning and seizure of the Russian shadow fleet is among the efforts to chop Russian power income to scale back Moscow’s capability to pursue its conflict in Ukraine.

India’s imports of Russian oil have reached a document degree this yr.

“In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia made up 33% of the nation’s complete seaborne oil imports and 25 % of Russia’s seaborne oil exports,” mentioned Niels Rasmussen, chief delivery analyst at Bimco. “A brand new commerce settlement between the U.S. and India might, in keeping with U.S. President Donald Trump, put an finish to that commerce,” he mentioned.

However Kremlin officers have pushed again, telling reporters they haven’t formally heard from India about any suspension of oil purchases by the Indian authorities.

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has additionally but to publicly verify the phrases of the commerce deal Trump introduced, although Indian officers have mentioned an announcement shall be coming. Trump’s announcement of the commerce deal got here days after the E.U. and India signed a significant commerce settlement slashing tariffs to zero on many items over quite a few years.

Trump has mentioned India can buy oil from the U.S. or Venezuela, however even when it does cease importing Russian crude, Rasmussen says it might as a substitute buy extra oil from the Persian Gulf.

Earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, as much as two-thirds of India’s crude oil and oil product imports arrived from the Persian Gulf. In 2025, these crude imports had fallen to 45%, in keeping with Bimco.

Rasmussen mentioned he wouldn’t count on Russian oil exports to fall by an identical quantity as Russia will possible intention to search out new consumers, even when it requires the next rebate to consumers of Russian oil. The shadow fleet usually has to promote at a reduction, and people reductions might enhance as world enforcement measures tighten. Russian crude, as a result of it’s sanctioned, already trades at a lower cost than crude offered on the general public markets.

Kevin Guide, managing director at ClearView Vitality Companions, mentioned if India does shut the door on Russian oil, it’ll give different consumers of final resort extra market energy. “That might stress Russian receipts to the draw back. Barrels typically discover a purchaser. The query is the value,” he mentioned.

However some analysts warning {that a} smaller marketplace for Russian oil might make it tougher for the shadow fleet to search out extra employment in its bid to switch India.

“The one main nation left to buy Russian oil is China, and so they might have already got all of the Russian oil that they need,” mentioned Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

With much less crude oil out of Venezuela to feed the darkish fleet and the Indian market probably shut down, Lipow says lots of these vessels could also be idled or finally be scrapped.

However Guide says the worldwide shadow fleet is fungible, and if there is a chance to maneuver sanctioned oil, the house owners of those vessels will benefit from it, with Venezuela an instance. “The shadow fleet strikes from one space of demand to a different, and so long as sanctions stay in place towards different main producing exporters, you’ll be able to count on that there’ll nonetheless be some shadow vessels getting used,” he mentioned. “The tankers that have been in Venezuelan commerce would now go into Iranian and Russian commerce.”

Regardless of the sanctioned crude crackdown, Russia has been rapidly including to its shadow fleet, reflagging vessels that when moved Venezuelan oil. In December, 17 sanctioned vessels have been reflagged to Russia. One of many tankers seized by the U.S. within the blockade of Venezuelan oil was a not too long ago reflagged Russian vessel.

Oil analysts say with the discounted sanctioned oil a separate market from typical above-board crude oil commerce, the entire enforcement actions and tariffs proceed to vary the economics of the crude shipments. “The general commerce between nations issues,” Guide mentioned. “We’re seeing oil flows have shifted areas by sanctions after which shifted once more by tariffs. There shall be logistical prices related to these shifts.”

The upper prices come from delivery petroleum longer distances, in addition to by intermediaries to avoid sanctions. A primary instance Guide gave was the transport of Russian oil, which beforehand went to Europe, and is now usually certain for China.

Guide defined that economics within the oil refining enterprise, the place margins are tight, favor discounted sanctioned oil. “Reductions are extraordinarily enticing to refiners,” he mentioned, and which means the barrels of sanctioned oil being moved by the darkish fleet “are going to discover a house. So long as there are sanctions in place, sanctions circumvention and workarounds are possible,” Guide added.

These workarounds find yourself being a plus for China, which is the first purchaser of Russian and Iranian crude. “The extra fraught a barrel turns into, the extra it generates a revenue for its purchaser and a reduction for its vendor. China might be going to proceed in search of distressed discounted barrels,” Guide mentioned.

Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet Tracker, which covers the roughly 1,400 vessels that predominantly transfer sanctioned Russian oil, exhibits there was an rising movement of stateless tankers loaded with Russian oil, anchored within the waters of Malaysia. The rise continues regardless of the federal government’s pledge to close it down. Malaysia has a commerce settlement with the U.S. that restricts dealings with sanctioned entities.

Maritime intelligence from Kpler exhibits that the stress of the U.S. brokering Venezuelan oil trades, and the present sanctions on Russia and Iran, are forcing extra of those vessels to conduct ship-to-ship transfers as a part of their efforts to go darkish when transferring sanctioned oil.

“It’s clear that there are nonetheless avid consumers of this sanctioned oil, specifically China and India,” mentioned Jean‑Charles Gordon, vice chairman of maritime and logistics at Kpler. “China consumes half of the Iranian oil.”

In 2025, 251 vessels have been loaded with sanctioned Iranian oil — 217 of these vessels (86%) are sanctioned, the vessels are focused by a authorities figuring out them in transferring the illicit oil, in keeping with Kpler knowledge. The remaining 34 vessels are within the lively shadow fleet, which strikes the sanctioned crude by misleading practices. The vast majority of these vessels (96%) carried out darkish ship-to-ship transfers; 77% spoofed their vessel location; and 72% turned off their vessel location beacons for extended stretches of time.

In 2025, there have been 510 vessels loaded with sanctioned Russian oil, in keeping with Kpler. Amongst these, 305, or 59% of the fleet, have been sanctioned. One other 86 vessels representing roughly 17% of the whole fleet can be thought of “shadow fleet.” These vessels additionally engaged in spoofing vessel areas and extended AIS gaps.

“The darkish fleet is not disappearing, it is changing into extra offshore, extra fragmented, and extra behaviorally excessive,” Gordon mentioned.