Prediction: in 12 months the surging Aviva share value and dividend might flip £10,000 into… – Imperial Wire

Aviva‘s (LSE:AV.) share value has loved blistering positive aspects over the past 12 months. Buyers have obtained a juicy complete return of 32.3%, together with a rising dividend. However what does that imply by way of chilly, laborious money?

Since 5 February, 2025, Aviva shares have risen 26.6% in worth, whereas its trailing dividend yield for the interval is 5.7%. It means a £10,000 funding again then would have was £13,320 immediately.

By comparability, the broader FTSE 100 would have delivered a decrease (if nonetheless strong) return of £12,370. The query is, can the celebration over at Aviva proceed?

What do the consultants assume?

Metropolis analysts are assured Aviva’s share value can preserve rising. Eighteen of them at the moment price the FTSE inventory, and their common 12-month value goal is 697.2p, up 7.9% from immediately’s ranges.

That’s far beneath the expansion buyers have loved over the past 12 months. And it appears to have one thing to do with the insurer’s present valuation. At 646.4p, its ahead price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.1 occasions, which — though not excessive on paper — continues to be above the 10-year common of seven.2.

Based mostly on these forecasts, Aviva shares might nonetheless ship a terrific return throughout the subsequent 12 months. The corporate’s ahead dividend is 6.4%, which means — if all goes effectively — a £10,000 funding immediately would turn out to be £11,430 by February 2026.

What might go fallacious?

Aviva faces a sequence of challenges that might affect investor returns over the subsequent 12 months. Its share value might disappoint if, as an illustration, shopper spending in its key UK market stays underneath strain, hitting earnings. Persistently excessive claims inflation might additionally injury efficiency, and significantly at its common insurance coverage unit.

Regardless of this, I consider Aviva is a good inventory to contemplate. Metropolis analysts are additionally largely optimistic on the FTSE agency, with 10 score it as a Sturdy Purchase or Purchase. Seven reckon it’s a Maintain, with only one saying it’s a Sturdy Promote or Promote.

Will Aviva’s share value rise?

Aviva is without doubt one of the core holdings in my very own portfolio, so I’ve shared in these wonderful returns over the previous 12 months. However I purchased it with a view to carry it for the lengthy haul. I feel its sturdy model energy, various product vary, and deep stability sheet put it in nice form to capitalise on the booming monetary providers market.

I particularly like the corporate’s deal with capital-light companies. This provides it good money era that it may well use to distribute to shareholders in dividends, spend money on the enterprise, or pursue bolt-on acquisitions for progress.

Following its acquisition of rival Direct Line final 12 months, a powerful 70% of working revenue will finally come from capital-light companies. That’s up from 56% in 2025.

So what can we count on within the subsequent 12 months? Dangers stay, however the agency’s resilient efficiency in 2025 fills me with optimism. On stability, I’m anticipating one other sturdy rise in Aviva’s share value and its dividends.